Global Wine Production Rises 3% in 2025 but Remains Below Average as Climate Pressures Intensify

Global wine production increased in 2025, offering a modest sign of recovery after last year’s historic collapse. According to initial estimates from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global output reached 232 million hectolitres, up 3 percent from 2024. Even so, production remains 7 percent below the five-year average as vineyards worldwide continue to struggle with extreme and unpredictable climate conditions.

A Slow Recovery From 2024’s Historic Low

The rebound follows a turbulent 2024 harvest, when global wine output dropped to its lowest level since 1961. Frost, drought, hail, mildew, and heavy rainfall caused widespread crop losses. That decline also followed a poor 2023 season, marking three consecutive years of climate-driven strain.

Conditions in 2025 improved slightly, yet many regions still recorded historically low yields. France marked its smallest harvest since 1957, while Spain saw a 30-year low. Rioja faced a difficult season due to hail, mildew, and extreme heat. Castilla-La Mancha suffered a dramatic 30 percent drop, which local officials attributed to intense summer temperatures.

Regional Outlook: Gains and Losses

Despite the challenges, several regions posted meaningful gains.

• Italy recorded an 8 percent increase, returning to the top spot as the world’s largest producer. Strong vineyard management and favorable weather helped restore volumes to near-average levels.
• The United States, the fourth-largest wine producer, is expected to generate 21.7 million hectolitres, up 3 percent from last year. However, output remains 9 percent below its five-year average and far from historic highs.

OIV Director General John Barker emphasized that climate volatility has been the dominant factor over the past three years. He noted that some regions experienced heat and drought, only to face torrential rains or unexpected frosts shortly after. “The fact that this is the third year in a row with these conditions is quite striking,” Barker said.

Southern Hemisphere Shows Signs of Rebound

Production in the Southern Hemisphere rose 7 percent after three consecutive years of decline. Recoveries in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil helped offset lower output in Chile. Despite the improvement, total Southern Hemisphere production remains 5 percent below its long-term average.

Market Impact: Tighter Supply May Help Stabilize Inventories

Although reduced output poses challenges for growers, OIV believes the current production levels may help rebalance the global market. Mature regions continue to see weak demand, consumption in China keeps falling, and international trade remains unpredictable.

Barker noted that from a macroeconomic perspective, lower production can create healthier alignment between global supply and global consumption. This balance may help stabilize inventories and reduce oversupply issues that have pressured producers in recent years.

Resources:

Global wine output subdued by climate shocks, OIV says (2025-11-12) — Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-wine-output-subdued-by-climate-shocks-oiv-says-2025-11-12/ Reuters

Global wine production climbs 3% in 2025 — The Drinks Business: https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/11/global-wine-production-climbs-3-in-2025/