Beverage Industry Sees Decline in Alcohol Sales as October Trends Weaken
Source: TD Cowen
The latest TD Cowen Beverage Tracker shows worsening trends across key alcohol categories in October. Total beverage sales fell 0.9% in the last four weeks and rose just 0.3% over the past 12 weeks, compared to 1.2% growth across the past year.
Energy Drinks Hold Strong, But Growth Slows
Energy drinks continued to outperform other beverage segments, though growth slowed. The category rose 9.6% in the last four weeks and 12.9% over 12 weeks.
Celsius remained the top performer, climbing 30% in the past month and 33.8% over 12 weeks. Alani Nu surged 69.5% and 84.1% in the same periods, while Monster Energy grew 8.6% and 9.6%.
Despite slowing gains, the energy drink category remains one of the strongest performers in the beverage market, up 11.9% year over year.
Soft Drinks Growth Cools Across Major Brands
Carbonated soft drink (CSD) sales rose 1.9% in the last four weeks and 3.0% over 12 weeks, though volumes declined by roughly 2.5%.
Coca-Cola reported U.S. sales growth of 2.4% over four weeks and 3.2% over 12 weeks. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) increased 0.5% and 1.4%, driven by single-serve coffee, which jumped 8.3% and 4.6%.
PepsiCo, however, continued to struggle. Sales dropped 2.6% in the last four weeks and 2.4% over 12 weeks. The company also lost market share in both CSDs and salty snacks, down 59 and 119 basis points respectively.
Alcohol Categories Show Steeper Declines
Alcoholic beverages faced significant pressure across beer, spirits, and wine.
Total spirits sales declined 2.7% in the past month and 2.0% over 12 weeks. Excluding prepared cocktails, the category dropped 5.9% and 5.4%. Diageo saw a sharp decline, down 9.3% and 7.7%, losing 136 basis points in share.
Beer sales fell 6.3% over four weeks and 4.6% across 12 weeks, compared to a 2.9% decline over the past year. Molson Coors (TAP) dropped 7.7% and 6.3%. Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) slipped 2.4% and 1.3%, though Michelob Ultra and Busch Light recorded slight gains. Constellation Brands (STZ) reported declines of 5.3% and 2.6%, with volumes down nearly 6%.
Analysts at TD Cowen said that, despite company claims of stabilization, “the data still shows ongoing weakness.”
Non-Alcoholic Alternatives and Beyond Beer Show Resilience
Flavored alcoholic beverages, often labeled “Beyond Beer,” grew 3.3% in the last four weeks and 3.9% over 12 weeks. The segment remains steady with 3.5% annual growth.
Non-alcoholic beverages tied to the alcohol category grew 15.6% and 18% respectively, reflecting consumer demand for moderation options. TD Cowen valued Beyond Beer at $13.5 billion and the non-alcoholic segment at $980 million over the past year.
Other Beverage Categories Mixed
Elsewhere in the beverage market, sports drinks fell 2.9% in the last month and 0.9% over 12 weeks. Bottled water slipped 0.8% but grew 1.0% in the longer period. Single-serve ground coffee rose sharply, up 13.3% over four weeks and 9.2% over 12, driven by price increases and low elasticity. Wine sales continued to slide, down 4.8% and 5.1%.
