US Beer and Spirits Markets See Continued Volume Declines in Early Q4, Citi Reports

Source: CITI

Citi’s latest analysis of NielsenIQ data reveals that both the US beer and spirits industries recorded volume declines through early November. While energy drinks and prepared cocktails continue to perform well in the broader beverage sector, traditional alcohol segments show signs of persistent weakness.

Beer Category Contracts Further as AB InBev Maintains Market Share Gains

According to Citi, total US beer, flavored malt beverages (FMB), cider, and seltzer volumes fell 6.9% in the four weeks ending November 1. That marks a steeper drop than the previous period’s 5.1% decline. Dollar sales decreased 5.7% as modest price and mix growth of 1.3% failed to offset falling volumes.

AB InBev outperformed the broader market slightly, with US beer volumes down 6.7% versus the category’s 7.0% decline. The brewer’s total share across beer, FMB, cider, and seltzer rose by 23 basis points in value, while beer alone gained 19 basis points. However, flagship brands continued to struggle, with Bud Light volumes down 12.2% and Budweiser down 10%.

Heineken experienced sharper declines, with total US beer volumes down 12.5% and its core brand falling 16%. Price and mix were flat, resulting in a 12.5% drop in dollar sales. Citi estimates that the US contributes roughly 5% of Heineken’s EBIT.

Diageo, which has a smaller US beer footprint, saw volumes rise 7.8% in the last four weeks, up from 4.1% growth over the prior 12 weeks. Dollar sales increased 8.6%, driven by a 0.8% price/mix improvement. The company’s US beer operations account for about 2% of EBIT.

Meanwhile, craft beer volumes declined 6.8% year-over-year, deepening from a 4.4% drop the month before. Citi estimates AB InBev controls around 6% of the craft market.

Citi noted that NielsenIQ data captures roughly 60% of the total US beer, FMB, cider, and seltzer market, primarily from off-premise retail channels.

Spirits Sales Weaken Outside Prepared Cocktails

In the spirits segment, Citi reported that total category volumes rose 5.4% in the four weeks to November 1. However, this growth was entirely driven by prepared cocktails. Excluding that subcategory, US spirits volumes fell 4.3%, while dollar sales declined 5.3%.

Among core categories, tequila volumes slipped 2.2%, cognac dropped 10.2%, and whiskey and vodka fell 5.7% and 4.2% respectively. Gin and rum also continued to struggle, with declines near 8%. Cordials offered a small bright spot, rising 1%, while prepared cocktails jumped 28.1%, maintaining double-digit growth momentum.

Citi noted that total price and mix for spirits decreased 6%, resulting in an overall sales decline of 0.9% for the four-week period.

Brand Performance: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, and Rémy Cointreau

Diageo recorded a sales decline of 8.5% in the latest four weeks and 6.9% over the past 12 weeks. Excluding ready-to-drink products, sales were down 13.6%. Volume decreased 7.9%, while price/mix slipped 0.7%. The company’s value share fell 135 basis points. Weakness in tequila continued, with Casamigos down 18% and Don Julio off 3.7%. The US remains Diageo’s most significant market, accounting for more than half its EBIT.

Pernod Ricard reported sales down 7.2% in the latest period, slightly better than the previous month’s 7.4% decline. Volume fell 8.5%, while price/mix improved 1.5%. Its value share declined 35 basis points. The US represents about one-quarter of Pernod Ricard’s global EBIT.

Campari posted a 4.9% sales decline for the month, compared to 5.5% in the prior four weeks. Volumes were flat, but price/mix fell 4.8%. The company’s US operations contribute roughly 30% of group EBIT.

Rémy Cointreau showed similar softness, with sales down 4.3%, slightly better than recent trends. Volumes dropped 2.8%, and price/mix fell 1.5%. The US accounts for around 40% of Rémy’s EBIT.

Citi estimates that NielsenIQ data represents 20–30% of the total US spirits market, focusing primarily on off-premise retail channels and excluding liquor stores, control states, and e-commerce sales.

Outlook: Persistent Challenges for Core Alcohol Categories

The Citi report indicates that both beer and spirits producers continue to face demand headwinds as consumer preferences shift. Traditional beer brands remain under pressure from hard seltzers and non-alcoholic alternatives, while premium spirits are contending with weaker discretionary spending and rising competition from ready-to-drink formats.

Despite limited growth in select niches like prepared cocktails, Citi expects broader alcohol volumes to remain soft through the rest of 2025.

Resources:

“Alcoholic Beverage Trends 2025” — Penn State Extension provides a broad overview of beer, wine and spirits trends in North America, including volume declines and category-shifts. Penn State Extension

“U.S. Alcohol Beverages Trend Report 2025” — Research and Markets/Beverage Marketing Corporation analyse beer, wine and spirits data through 2024 and highlight emerging themes such as no-/low-alcohol and RTDs. GlobeNewswire+1

“Five Key Trends Shifting the Beverage Alcohol Market in 2025” — IWSR identifies major global drivers influencing alcohol categories including premiumisation and channel shifts. IWSR

“2024 Beverage Alcohol Year in Review” — NielsenIQ review on consumer behaviour, volume/value trends and rising moderation in alcohol consumption. NIQ

“US Spirits Industry Size & Share Analysis – Growth Trends & Forecasts 2025-2030” — Grand View Research report detailing projected growth for the U.S. spirits market in coming years. Grand View Research+1