Global Alcohol Volumes Expected to Fall Faster in 2025, New IWSR Forecast Shows
Glass of beer and beer bottle
The global beverage alcohol industry is heading into a deeper downturn in 2025 than analysts expected earlier this year. According to the IWSR’s first-ever mid-year forecast update, total beverage alcohol volume is now projected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2025. This is double the decline forecasted in May.
Beer Volumes Drive a Sharper Global Drop
IWSR cites one primary reason for the downgrade: a sharper-than-expected contraction in global beer consumption. Beer volumes are now expected to fall 0.2 percent in 2025, compared to the previous projection of 0.2 percent growth.
Because beer accounts for such a large share of servings worldwide, even small shifts heavily influence total beverage alcohol volume.
The pressures are most visible in the United States and China, the two largest contributors to beer’s global performance.
Economic and Political Pressures Hit US Beer Demand
According to IWSR Managing Director and President Marten Lodewijks, American consumers are staying home more often due to continued cost-of-living concerns. This shift reduces on-premise sales, which has been historically important for beer.
When consumers drink at home, they tend to choose higher-value or more versatile categories, and beer often loses share.
Another major contributor to the downturn is the unexpected decline in Mexican beer sales in the US. This category has powered beer growth for years, yet it has stumbled in 2025 due to political uncertainty and weaker spending among Hispanic consumers.
China’s Alcohol Market Feels the Impact of Policy Shifts
In China, strict government measures are limiting alcohol consumption at official and public-sector events. The government has also tightened enforcement around luxury spending, which has weighed heavily on brandy and premium spirits.
Additionally, economic softness is reducing consumer spending in bars and restaurants across major cities. As a result, IWSR has lowered its outlook for both beer and brandy in China, although other categories are largely unchanged.
Revised Global Outlook for 2025
The latest IWSR forecast shows declines across most major categories:
- Beer: -0.2 percent
- Spirits: -1.3 percent
- Wine: -2.4 percent
- RTDs: +1.3 percent (the only category still expected to grow)
In value terms, global beverage alcohol is now expected to fall 0.7 percent in 2025, compared to the earlier estimate of 0.5 percent.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for 2026 remains unchanged. IWSR still expects flat growth in both volume and value next year.
IWSR Introduces First Mid-Year Forecast Update
To address rising market volatility, IWSR released its first mid-year update in more than 30 years of tracking global beverage alcohol performance. This update responds to client demand for more frequent forecasting in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
Beginning this year, IWSR will publish forecast updates twice annually, in May and November. Forecast coverage has also expanded from a five-year outlook to a ten-year horizon.
New Scenario Planner Helps Evaluate Future Market Shocks
Alongside its mid-year update, IWSR launched its Scenario Planner, a new tool within its Global Forecast Suite. The planner helps companies assess how major macroeconomic shifts could affect alcohol performance across 31 key markets.
Users can examine three scenarios per market:
- Base case
- More negative
- More positive
Each scenario includes assumptions for economic conditions, consumer behavior, and category impact, enabling alcohol producers to stress-test their long-term plans.
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